Academic research project. Hypothetical walk-forward performance — no foreknowledge, not a live track record. Not investment advice, not FCA-authorised, capital at risk.
Portfolio Lab · Research Lab
Research Lab — an experiment in what an agentic-AI research framework can do, published in full. Research, not advice — not a tip service. Explore →

Portfolio Factsheet

Adaptive Balanced

A tactical, risk-managed portfolio — not a static mix. Each month it selects the most attractive risk-adjusted assets from a global cross-asset menu (equity, government & inflation-linked bonds, gold, commodities, managed-futures trend), inverse-vol weights them, and sizes the book to a ~10% volatility target — concentrating in what is working and de-risking into cash when little qualifies (so a meaningful cash weight in calm or stressed periods is by design). Long-only, walk-forward out-of-sample. Aims for a high Sharpe with far lower drawdown than equities — not to beat the S&P on raw return. IB Pro.

Inception: January 2019

Benchmark:

Last updated: June 2026

Final Value

£49,053

vs benchmark: £62,954

Annual Return

12.29%

vs benchmark: 15.96%

Volatility

11.2%

vs benchmark: 15.8%

Max Drawdown

-13.8%

vs benchmark: -25.5%

Equity Curve

This product uses US-listed ETFs available on IB Pro only. Returns are shown net of dealing/spread/FX costs but gross of UK tax — a higher-rate taxpayer would face dividend tax, CGT and interest tax that add ~80-150 bps/yr of further drag. See Methodology for full details.

Adaptive Balanced — portfolio versus benchmark equity curve

Monthly Returns

Year JanFebMarAprMayJun JulAugSepOctNovDec Total

Performance Metrics

Metric Portfolio (IB Pro) IB Pro Benchmark

Drawdown

Allocation over time

Portfolio holdings (IB Pro)